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Tracking 2 Degrees FY2020 Q4

Quarterly report, Q4/FY2020

Tracking 2020 Q4 Report | or April, May and June 2020

Under the Paris Agreement, the Australian Government has legally committed to reducing our emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030. However, to ensure global warming remains under 2 degrees, independent body – the Climate Change Authority (CCA) – has proposed Australia set a national Science Based Target (SBT). This is a target calculated from Australia’s share of emissions for a 2◦C global outcome. Ndevr Environmental has used this target to model a quarterly emissions budget for Australia.
This report tracks Australia’s performance against our Paris target and the CCA’s carbon budget based on the latest available data, trends and industry movements for the months of April, May and June (Q4/FY2020). Our results are presented in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (t CO2-e). 1 t CO2-e is roughly equal to the emissions of a standard 5-seat passenger vehicle driving around 5,400 km.

Headline Results

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has had a dramatic impact on emissions for the quarter.
  • Emissions for Q4/FY2020 are projected to be 122.2 Mt CO2-e. This represents a reduction of 10.9 Mt CO2-e on the corresponding quarter the year prior (Q4/FY2019).
  • Emissions for the 12-month period to 30 June 2020 declined by around 2.7% on the previous 12-month period.
  • If emissions continue to decline at a rate of 2.7% per annum, the 2030 Paris target would be met around 2031.This is a significant improvement from previous quarters, where recent decline rates saw us hitting our Paris target at 2098 and 2065. However, emissions are expected to increase to pre-COVID levels as the economy recovers.
  • Electricity emissions for Q4/FY2020 are the lowest on record (dating back to 2002), with renewable energy generation across the NEM states achieving the highest penetration rate on record.
  • Electricity generation in the NEM for the month of March 2020 and September 2020 fell by 4.5% (0.78 TWh) and 2% (0.31 TWh) below 2019 levels respectively.

COVID-19 Related Impacts to September

We have conducted some additional analysis on available data month-by-month and beyond quarter’s end and found:

  • Aviation fuel use in July 2020 decreased by 608 ML and 1.57 MtCO2-e. For April 2020 we observed reductions of 602 ML and 1.56 MtCO2-e. These represent reductions of 74% and 80% respectively, compared to 2019. Both monthly reductions in emissions are roughly equivalent to taking 662,000 cars off the road for 12 months.
  • The initial decrease in automotive transport fuels appears to be gradually levelling out. However, significant differences for January to September in 2019 and 2020 still remain (see Real-world Effects – Looking Back on the COVID-19 Response for graphics), including:
  • 3 ML (28%) reduction in LPG consumption compared to 2019,
  • 1,917 ML (27%) reduction in gasoline consumption compared to 2019, and
  • 262 ML (6.5%) reduction in diesel consumption compared to 2019.

The figures for automotive transport fuel show commuters have drastically reduced their light vehicle fuel consumption as they work from and stay at home more. Diesel consumption from heavy freight vehicles and commercial activities, however, have seen a lesser reduction, as road and rail freight have been required to keep commodities moving across the economy.

Australia’s Quarterly Emissions Projections to a 2 Degree Target

Detailed Findings

Increased Renewable Generation Leads to Reduced Electricity Emissions

We have conducted some additional analysis on available data month-by-month and beyond quarter’s end and found:

  • Aviation fuel use in July 2020 decreased by 608 ML and 1.57 MtCO2-e. For April 2020 we observed reductions of 602 ML and 1.56 MtCO2-e. These represent reductions of 74% and 80% respectively, compared to 2019. Both monthly reductions in emissions are roughly equivalent to taking 662,000 cars off the road for 12 months.
  • The initial decrease in automotive transport fuels appears to be gradually levelling out. However, significant differences for January to September in 2019 and 2020 still remain (see Real-world Effects – Looking Back on the COVID-19 Response for graphics), including:
  • 3 ML (28%) reduction in LPG consumption compared to 2019,
  • 1,917 ML (27%) reduction in gasoline consumption compared to 2019, and
  • 262 ML (6.5%) reduction in diesel consumption compared to 2019.

The figures for automotive transport fuel show commuters have drastically reduced their light vehicle fuel consumption as they work from and stay at home more. Diesel consumption from heavy freight vehicles and commercial activities, however, have seen a lesser reduction, as road and rail freight have been required to keep commodities moving across the economy.

Figure 3: Increasing Renewable Generation and Reducing Electricity Emissions
Figure 4: Acceleration toward Paris Commitments

Electricity Analysis for the National Energy Market

Electricity emission projections for Q4/FY2020 were the lowest on record across the entire data set, dating back to 2001 (38.9 Mt CO2-e). With quarterly electricity demand relatively stable across the NEM, the decline has been driven by an increase in renewable energy generation from wind power, hydro power, utility-scale solar and rooftop solar, as well as the COVID pandemic response including lockdowns.
Renewable energy generation across the NEM states for the period was 25.7% (including rooftop solar), the highest penetration rate on record for renewable energy.
Quarterly black coal and brown coal generation have dropped sharply by 3 TWh and 0.4 TWh respectively, contributing to a 74.3% fossil fuel grid.
Electricity generation in the NEM for the month of June 2020 fell by 2% or 1.1 TWh below June 2019 levels.
For Q4/FY2020, results for the NEM states are as follows:
  • NSW generated 16 TWh of electricity with 83% from black coal, 1.1% from gas and 15.4% from renewable sources including wind, hydro, utility-scale solar and rooftop solar. NSW’s renewable energy percentage has fallen short by 3.9% on its all-time high, which occurred in Q2 FY2020.
  • QLD generated 15 TWh of electricity with 74% from black coal, 11% from gas and the balance from renewable sources including utility-scale solar, rooftop solar, wind and a small portion of hydro energy. QLD’s renewable energy percentage increased 1% on the previous quarter to achieve its second highest rate of 13.9%.
  • VIC generated 11.9 TWh of electricity with 73.7% from brown coal, 2.5% from gas and 23.8% from renewable sources including wind, hydro, rooftop solar and utility-scale solar. VIC’s renewable energy penetration is its second highest on record, falling short by just 0.1% on Q1 FY2020.
  • SA generated 3.3 TWh of electricity with 42% from gas and 55% from renewable sources such as wind, rooftop solar, utility-scale solar and battery (discharge). SA’s renewable energy percentage has dropped 5% on last quarter but is at its third highest on record.
  • TAS generated 3.3 TWh of electricity with 99.5% from renewable sources such as hydro, wind and rooftop solar and the balance from gas. TAS’s renewable energy percentage for Q4 FY2020 is 0.15% lower than Q3 FY2020, but has still not dropped below 78% since records began (2005).

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    CARBON NEUTRAL PRODUCT

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    ORIGIN

    CARBON NEUTRAL ORGANISATION & PRODUCT

    Responsible business is at the heart of what Intrepid does. Intrepid has been a pioneer in measuring and reporting carbon emissions since 2010. When it joined the Climate Active family in 2018, it became the largest global provider of carbon neutral certified travel adventures and the first company to voluntarily include all global operations in its certification.

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    Goodman Group is an ASX20 global property expert in logistics and business space. It owns, develops and manages industrial property in 17 countries. We provide strategic advisory on Goodman’s operational GHG inventory and trajectory, the GHG intensity of its investment portfolio, net zero pathway and carbon neutral certification, as well as the renewable energy delivery strategy.

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