Skip to content Skip to footer

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Tracking 2020 Q2 Report | or October, November and December 2019

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Under the Paris Agreement, the Australian Government has legally committed to reducing our emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030. However, to ensure global warming remains under 2 degrees, independent body – the Climate Change Authority (CCA) – has proposed Australia set a national Science Based Target (SBT). This is a target calculated from Australia’s share of emissions for a 2◦C global outcome. Ndevr Environmental has used this target to model a quarterly emissions budget for Australia.

This report tracks Australia’s performance against our Paris target and the CCA’s carbon budget based on the latest available data, trends and industry movements for the months of October, November and December (Q2/FY2020). Our results are presented in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (t CO2-e). 1 t CO2-e is roughly equal to the emissions of a standard 5-seat passenger vehicle driving around 5,400 km.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Headline Results

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

  • Emissions for the 12-month period to 31 December 2019 declined ever so slightly, by around 0.9% on the previous 12 months. This represents the first decline in calendar year annual emissions since 2015.
  • If emissions continue to decline at a rate of 0.9% p.a., the 2030 Paris target would be met around 2095, 65 years after the deadline.
  • While electricity emissions for Q2/FY2020 are the lowest on record (dating back to 2002), transport emissions are projected to be the highest on record.
  • Renewable energy generation across the NEM states for the period had the highest penetration rate on record while black coal generation was at its lowest point in the data set (since 2005), totaling 25.2 TWh.
  • Emissions for Q2/FY2020 are projected to be 129.8 Mt CO2-e. This represents a decline of 3.5 Mt CO2-e and a decline of 3.4 Mt CO2-e on the corresponding quarter the year prior (Q2/FY2019).
  • We have undertaken some additional analysis for Q3/2020 in an attempt to understand the impact the COVID-19 crisis is having on domestic emissions. Electricity is the only current dataset and shows the slowing economy has apparently caused a slight decrease in electricity use.
    • March 2020 consumption was 5% less than March 2019, and April is down around 2% on average daily consumption against the same period 12 months earlier.
    • Our sources in the energy sector tell us electricity consumption in the commercial and industrial sectors has not softened as much as expected, declining only around 2 to 3% compared to projections of as much as 15 to 25% that were initially expected and based on the reductions seen in the UK and Italy.
    • The electricity demand curve has flattened markedly, and the peaks that are usually seen between 6 to 10 pm are not as evident as much of the workforce has shifted from the office to the home.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Australia’s Quarterly Emissions Projections to a 2 Degree Target

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=”32121″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center”][vc_column_text]

Figure 1: Australia’s Quarterly Emissions Projections to a 2 Degree Target, 2005 – 2050

[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”32040″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center”][vc_column_text]

Figure 2: Australia’s Quarterly Emissions Projections to a 2 Degree Target, 2013 – 2020

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Detailed Findings

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Increased Renewable Generation Leads to Reduced Electricity Emissions

The National Electricity Market has achieved its highest ever quarterly renewable energy penetration, coming in at 25.6%, representing a 1.6% increase on the previous high, which occurred last quarter. This contributed to a drop in electricity related emissions of 3.5 Mt CO2-e nationwide.

While total energy generation in the NEM has remained reasonably stable since 2005, rising renewable energy penetration has started to produce a downward trend in emissions from the Australian electricity sector.

[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”32097″ img_size=”full” add_caption=”yes” alignment=”center”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Electricity Analysis for the National Energy Market

Figure 4: Electricity Generation in the National Energy Market (NEM)
Figure 4: Electricity Generation in the National Energy Market (NEM)

Electricity emission projections for Q2/FY2020 were the lowest on record across the entire data set, dating back to 2001 (39.2 Mt CO2-e).

With quarterly electricity demand relatively stable across the NEM, the decline has been driven by an increase in renewable energy generation from wind power, hydro power, utility-scale solar and rooftop solar. Renewable energy generation across the NEM states for the period was 25.6% (including rooftop solar), the highest penetration rate on record for renewable energy. Quarterly black coal generation was at its lowest point in three years, totalling 25.2 TWh.

For Q2/FY2020, results for the NEM states are as follows:

NSW generated 16.6 TWh of electricity with 77% from black coal, 4% from gas and 19% from renewable sources including wind, hydro, utility-scale solar and rooftop solar. NSW’s renewable energy percentage is at an all-time high, up 3% on last quarter.

QLD generated 16.2 TWh of electricity with 77% from black coal, 8% from gas and the balance from renewable sources including hydro, utility-scale solar, rooftop solar and a small portion of wind energy. QLD’s renewable energy percentage increased 2% on the previous quarter to reach an all-time high of 15%.

VIC generated 11.5 TWh of electricity with 72% from brown coal, 5% from gas and 23% from renewable sources including wind, hydro, rooftop solar and utility-scale solar. Victoria’s rooftop and large-scale solar generation were both the highest on record.

SA generated 3.6 TWh of electricity with 41% from gas and 59% from renewable sources such as wind, rooftop solar, utility-scale solar and battery (discharge). South Australia’s renewable energy percentage has risen 8% on last quarter to reach its highest on record.

TAS generated 2.5 TWh of electricity with 98% from renewable sources such as hydro, wind and rooftop soar and the balance from gas. TAS’s renewable energy percentage has not dropped below 78% since records began (2005).[/vc_column_text][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner][vc_column_text]

Figure 5: Australia’s Annual Emissions
Figure 5: Australia’s Annual Emissions

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/2″][vc_column_text]

Australia’s Quarterly Emissions By Sector

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]

Figure 6: Australia’s Quarterly Emissions by Sector
Figure 6: Australia’s Quarterly Emissions by Sector*

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/2″][vc_column_text]

2 Degree Budget Expenditure to Date

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]

Figure 7: 2 Degree Budget Expenditure to Date
Figure 7: 2 Degree Budget Expenditure to Date

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_column_text]

Real-world Effects – COVID-19 Response

Based on available data it is too soon to determine the effects the COVID-19 pandemic is having on emissions across the country. That begin said, the slowing of the economy appears to be showing a slight decrease in electricity consumption. March 2020 consumption was 5% less than March 2019, however it should be noted that March 2019 was generally warmer. April 2020 (month to date) is down around 2% on average daily use against the corresponding period. Figures 8 and 9 below show the results.

Our contacts in the energy sector tell us that overall electricity consumption has not decreased as much as they expected, and commercial and industrial consumption is only down around 2 to 3%. The daily demand curve has flattened, and the 6 to 10 pm spikes that are often seen in normal circumstances are not as pronounced. This is in line with the fact that much of the workforce is currently working from home.[/vc_column_text][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/2″][vc_column_text]

Figure 8: NEM Electricity Consumption During COVID-19 Response
Figure 8: NEM Electricity Consumption During COVID-19 Response

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/2″][vc_column_text]

Figure 9: NEM Average Daily Consumption During COVID-19 Response
Figure 9: NEM Average Daily Consumption During COVID-19 Response

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][vc_column][vc_column_text]In our next quarterly report (data ends March 2020, report due mid-May) we expect emissions will drop markedly across the economy. At a more granular level, we may expect to see:

  • sharp decreases in liquid fuel emissions from air and sea transport,
  • reduced emissions from land transport as passenger commutes have decreased – we understand retail fuel sales have dropped dramatically although we are yet to see the dataset; and
  • a marginal reduction in electricity consumption.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/2″][vc_column_text]This report has been compiled by Ndevr Environmental Pty Ltd, using the latest information available from: AEMO, Office of the Chief Economist, Australian Petroleum Statistics and the Department of the Environment and Energy’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGGI) reports. Detailed electricity generation data for the National Energy Market (NEM) are sourced from Open NEM.
GDP trends are sourced from Trading Economics, information about Australian car use is sourced from the National Transport Commission, 2018 and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Emission factors are sourced from National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting (Measurement) Determination 2008.
Government and CCA target information is available at the following sources:
[1] – Australian Government (2015), Australia’s 2030 Climate change target, Commonwealth of Australia
[2] – CCA (2014), Reducing Australia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Targets and Progress Review, Final Report (page 9)
This work is copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process, nor may any other exclusive right be exercised, without the permission of Ndevr Environmental, L2 27-31 King Street, Melbourne VIC 3000; 2020[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/2″][vc_column_text]

We’re tracking Australia’s carbon budget, find out how we can help you monitor and reduce yours…

 

www.ndevrenvironmental.com.au

 

 

Ndevr Environmental is a specialist carbon, energy and sustainability focused consultancy firm that partners with clients to achieve positive business and environmental outcomes.

[/vc_column_text][vc_btn title=”Download PDF Version” i_icon_fontawesome=”fa fa-file-pdf-o” add_icon=”true” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Fndevrenvironmental.com.au%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F05%2FTracking-2-Degrees-Report-FY2020-Q2-vA.4.pdf||target:%20_blank|”][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Business Hours

Mon - Fri : 9am - 5.30pm

Melbourne - HQ

Level 2, 27 – 31 King street, Melbourne, VIC 3000 P: +61 3 7035 1740

Sydney

Commons Central, 20-40 Meagher St, Chippendale, Sydney, NSW 2000 P: +61 3 7035 1740

Brisbane

Level 6, 200 Adelaide Street, Brisbane, Qld, 4000 P: +61 3 7035 1740

Perth

Level 25, South 32 Building, 108 St Georges Terrace, Perth, WA 6000 P: +61 8 6557 8571

Ndevr Environmental Pty Ltd© 2021. All Rights Reserved. Founded 2010. Privacy Policy.
B-Corp-Climate-Active-logo

MAKE AN ENQUIRY

Please complete the form below and we’ll be in contact with you shortly.





    ATIYAH

    CARBON NEUTRAL PRODUCT

    ​AWESOME STREETFOOD, ZERO CARBON – that’s Atiyah. With its launch in 2020, Atiyah became Australia’s first 100% renewable-run street food zero-carbon kitchen certified under Climate Active. Atiyah sets operational carbon efficiency benchmarks and raises awareness about the global warming impact of food choices. They even disclosed the footprint of every item on their menu to empower their customers’ low-carbon lifestyle. We assist ATIYAH with their carbon neutrality certification.

    ORIGIN

    CARBON NEUTRAL ORGANISATION & PRODUCT

    Responsible business is at the heart of what Intrepid does. Intrepid has been a pioneer in measuring and reporting carbon emissions since 2010. When it joined the Climate Active family in 2018, it became the largest global provider of carbon neutral certified travel adventures and the first company to voluntarily include all global operations in its certification.

    NEXTDC

    CARBON NEUTRAL ORGANISATION & PRODUCT NEXTDC are one of Australia‘s most trusted providers of data centre solutions. Since 2018 we’ve been assisting them with their Greenhouse Gas (GHG) accounting and in March 2021, the company broke ground with the launch of NEXTneutral, an innovative Climate Active-compliant colocation opt-in program for their customers. Learn more.

    GOODMAN

    COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY
    Goodman Group is an ASX20 global property expert in logistics and business space. It owns, develops and manages industrial property in 17 countries. We provide strategic advisory on Goodman’s operational GHG inventory and trajectory, the GHG intensity of its investment portfolio, net zero pathway and carbon neutral certification, as well as the renewable energy delivery strategy.

    ISPT

    PROPERTY FUND MANAGEMENT
    ISPT is one of Australia’s largest unlisted property fund managers, with over $11.9 billion of funds under management. We assist ISPT with its net zero pathway, land-based offset strategy as well as maintaining its carbon neutral certification. When ISPT joined the Climate Active network, it pioneered many concepts. It became the first participant under Climate Active to voluntarily include base building operations on all its owned and operated properties into its organisational certification and, as an industry first, procured 100% Australian Carbon Credit Offset Units (ACCUs).

    BHP

    METALS & MINING
    BHP is an ASX listed, world-leading resources company and are among the world’s top producers of major commodities, including iron ore, metallurgical coal and copper. They also have substantial interests in oil, gas and energy coal. We assist BHP comply with energy and greenhouse gas legislation and advise facilities on matters related to energy use and production emissions.

    Intrepid

    TRAVEL
    Intrepid Travel is the largest small group adventure travel company in the world. Responsible business is at the heart of what Intrepid does. We assist Intrepid with their Human Rights reporting obligations as well as many aspects of its GHG accounting and reporting. This includes its Science-based target (SBT), making them the first tour operator with approved SBT. When Intrepid joined the Climate Active family in 2018, it became the largest global provider of carbon neutral certified travel adventures and the first company to voluntarily include all global operations in its certification.

    LION

    BEVERAGES
    Lion is a global beverage company with a portfolio of brands in beer, cider, wine, spirits, seltzers, and non-alcoholic drinks. Lion has four large and four small Australian breweries, and its brands include XXXX, GOLD, Tooheys New, and Little Creatures. We assisted Lion to become Australia’s first large-scale brewer to be certified as carbon neutral under Climate Active in 2020.

    QANTAS Airline

    AIRLINE
    Founded in the Queensland outback in 1920, Qantas has grown to be Australia’s largest domestic and international airline. We have worked with Qantas since 2016 on a variety of emissions reduction projects.

    ORICA

    METALS & MINING
    Orica is the world’s largest provider of commercial explosives and innovative blasting systems to the mining, quarrying, oil and gas and construction markets, a leading supplier of sodium cyanide for gold extraction, and a specialist provider of ground support services in mining and tunnelling. We assist Orica with their regulatory reporting such as NGERs and also carbon abatement projects.

    Fulton Hogan

    CONSTRUCTION
    Fulton Hogan has more than 80 years experience in the transport, water, energy, mining, civil construction and land development infrastructure in New Zealand, Australia and the South Pacific.
    We assist Fulton Hogan comply with NGER and NPI legislation for their extensive national operations. We work Fulton’s team to streamline reporting procedures to avoid duplicating data handling and transparently demonstrate data flows and aggregations.

    TOYOTA AUSTRALIA

    AUTOMOTIVE
    Toyota Australia was founded in 1963 and is one of Australia’s leading automotive companies. We have worked with Toyota since 2018 on many aspects of its GHG accounting, target setting, reduction initiatives, and reporting. We continue to inform strategic decisions around the contribution of the Australian business to the realisation of Toyota’s global Environmental Challenge 2050.

    H&H Group / Swisse Wellness

    CONSUMER GOODS
    H&H Group is a global health and nutrition company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Consumer brands include Biostime, Solid Gold Pet, Dodie, Good Goût, Aurelia Probiotic Skincare, CBII, and Swisse Wellness, a vitamin, supplement, and skincare brand, born in Australia in 1969. We have been working with Swisse and the group on many aspects of its GHG accounting and reporting, including the ongoing management of its Climate Active certification.

    AGL ENERGY

    ENERGY
    AGL is one of Australia’s leading energy companies offering electricity, gas, solar and renewable energy services, plus internet and mobile plans. We have assisted AGL for over five years on a variety of activities including audit and assurance projects.

    VIVA ENERGY

    ENERGY
    Viva Energy is a leading energy company which supplies about a quarter of Australia’s fuel requirements. Viva Energy make, import, blend and deliver fuels, lubricants, solvents and bitumen through extensive national and international supply chains. We assist Viva Energy with a range of energy and greenhouse gas related projects. These include annual NGER reporting, Safeguard baseline setting, advice on Emission Reduction Fund opportunities and emission trajectories.